Frankfurt letter, week beginning April 18

-Eurozone economy

Economic output in the Eurozone for the first three quarters of the year is set to increase by 0.4 percent, according to the three research institutes Ifo (Munich), INSEE (Paris) and ISTAT (Rome). This development is expected to be driven by dynamic domestic demand.

Private consumption is forecast to grow by 0.5 percent during the first three quarters of 2016, stimulated by rising employment and low oil prices.

- Eurozone inflation data

Eurozone inflation stood at zero percent in March, revised data from the statistical office of the European Union showed last Thursday.

Euro area annual inflation was 0.0 percent in March 2016, up from -0.2 percent in February, according to Eurostat figures.

In March 2016, European Union annual inflation was 0.0 percent up from -0.1 percent compared to March 2015.

-Eurozone trade surplus narrowed in February.

Data released by Eurostat showed that the euro area recorded a 19 billion euro surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in February 2016, compared to 20 billion euros in February 2015.

-News from Germany

The Munich-based institute for Economic Research Ifo published the biannual "Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2016” report for Germany last week on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy.

The leading German economic research institutes, including the Ifo Institute, the DIW Berlin, the IWH and the RWI participated in the spring 2016 forecast which

estimated that gross domestic product would increase by 1.6 percent in 2016, instead of 1.8 percent as forecast in autumn 2015.

“The revision was entirely due to the marked cool down in the world economy at the end of 2015.  Germany’s domestic economy is even stronger today than it was last autumn,” said Timo Wollmershaeuser, interim director of the Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys.

-The week ahead

This week, global markets will monitor the press conference of the European Central Bank (ECB) to be held on Thursday in Frankfurt. The ECB is not expected to unveil further new measures against very low inflation.

19 Apr,2016