REPORT
By Abdulselam Durdak
Frankfurt letter, week beginning Dec. 19

-Highlights in Eurozone

In the Eurozone last week, annual inflation and the Markit Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data were published. Inflation expectations were met, while PMI data remained at the highest level in 11 months. On the other hand, the region's foreign trade data was weak.

 

-Inflation

According to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, Euro area annual inflation was 0.6 percent in November 2016, up from 0.5 percent in October. In November 2015 the rate was 0.1 percent. European Union annual inflation was 0.6 percent in November 2016, up from 0.5 percent in October. A year earlier the rate was 0.1 percent.

In the Monetary Union, the final core inflation in November also increased by 0.8 percent year-on-year, meeting expectations and flash data.

However, inflation figures were well below the 2 percent that the European Central Bank (ECB) is aiming to achieve for price stability.

 

-PMI

According to data from the economic research institute, IHS Markit Economics, the Eurozone flash composite PMI remained unchanged this month compared to November at 53.9 points, the highest level in the last 11 months.

 

- Foreign trade

The first estimate for euro area exports of goods to the rest of the world in October 2016 was €172.5 billion, a decrease of 5 percent compared with October 2015 at €180.8 billion. Imports from the rest of the world stood at €152.4 billion, a fall of 3 percent compared with October 2015 with €157.5 billion. 

As a result, the euro area recorded a €20.1 billion surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in October 2016, compared with €23.2 billion in October 2015.

 

-News from Germany

According to figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), consumer prices in Germany were 0.8 percent higher in November 2016 compared to November 2015. This shows that inflation remained at a two-year-high.

Compared with October 2016, the consumer price index rose by 0.1 percent in November 2016.

The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) for Germany, which is calculated for European purposes, rose by 0.7 percent in November 2016 on the November 2015 figures. Compared with October 2016, the index remained unchanged in November 2016.

On the other hand, the German think-tank Ifo Institute, has slightly upwardly revised its economic forecast for 2017. It now expects economic output to grow by 1.5 percent, after jointly forecasting just 1.4 percent growth with other institutes in autumn.  The Ifo Institute confirmed the Joint Economic Forecast of 1.9 percent growth for 2016, while it marginally upwardly revised its forecast for 2018 from 1.6 to 1.7 percent.

 

-The week ahead

This week, markets will continue to monitor the developments on global markets and focus on the European Central Bank’s statements.

On the data side, Euro area production in construction and Germany's foreign trade will be released.

 

 

 

19 Dec,2016

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